Daily GA vs ASC — Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec 2025

Sep, Oct, Nov, Dec 2025 | Google Ads = campaign-reported installs (interaction date). | ASC = first-time iOS installations (actual install date, all channels). | Annotations from Google Ads change history.

Date	ASC Installs	Google Ads	GA − ASC	GA / ASC
Sep 1–16 — Spend ramping, ASC organic elevated
Sep 1	4,728	1,289	−3,439	0.3x
Sep 2	3,951	818	−3,133	0.2x
Sep 3	3,472	1,158	−2,314	0.3x
Sep 4	3,862	696	−3,166	0.2x
Sep 5	3,989	799	−3,190	0.2x
Sep 6	5,200	1,090	−4,110	0.2x
Sep 7	5,781	1,285	−4,496	0.2x
Sep 8 tCPA cut Tier 1 $10.36→$7.00	4,855	888	−3,967	0.2x
Sep 9	5,035	627	−4,408	0.1x
Sep 10 Tier 1 campaign paused	4,146	501	−3,645	0.1x
Sep 11	3,460	442	−3,018	0.1x
Sep 12	3,401	742	−2,659	0.2x
Sep 13	2,884	541	−2,343	0.2x
Sep 14	2,751	1,419	−1,332	0.5x
Sep 15	2,424	683	−1,741	0.3x
Sep 16 US/UK/CA/AU ad group paused	1,962	1,040	−922	0.5x
Sep 17–30 — GA breaks above ASC (organic baseline normalised)
Sep 17	1,792	3,145	+1,353	1.8x
Sep 18	1,405	3,040	+1,635	2.2x
Sep 19 tCPA cuts Tier 3 $0.65→$0.50 / Tier 4 $4.23→$3.00	1,558	2,278	+720	1.5x
Sep 20	1,563	1,921	+358	1.2x
Sep 21	1,886	1,794	−92	1.0x
Sep 22	1,865	2,106	+241	1.1x
Sep 23	1,577	2,672	+1,095	1.7x
Sep 24 tCPA cuts Tier 3 $0.50→$0.30 / Tier 4 $3.00→$2.00	1,588	4,160	+2,572	2.6x
Sep 25 US/UK/CA/AU tCPA $6.70→$5.00 Budget $1,200→$800	1,823	3,272	+1,449	1.8x
Sep 26	1,426	4,074	+2,648	2.9x
Sep 27	1,527	4,607	+3,080	3.0x
Sep 28	1,607	3,222	+1,615	2.0x
Sep 29 tCPA cuts all tiers 13 ad groups paused	1,725	2,955	+1,230	1.7x
Sep 30 Budget cuts Tier 2/4/ROW Creative refresh	1,761	2,663	+902	1.5x
Total (Sep 1–30)	85,004	55,927	−29,077	0.7x
Sep 17–30 only	22,878	39,909	+17,031	1.7x

GA > 3× ASC

GA > 1.5× ASC

GA > ASC

ASC > GA

tCPA Target CPA cut

↑ Budget Budget increase

↓ Budget Budget decrease

Pause Campaign/ad group paused

Creative Ad creative refresh

Sep 1–16 — Organic buffer hides GA claims: ASC was running at 3,400–5,800/day from pre-campaign viral/organic momentum. Google Ads was spending but GA/ASC was only 0.1–0.5x. The large organic lead buffers the monthly total.

Sep 8 — tCPA cut on Tier 1 (Start Trial): tCPA cut from $10.36→$7.00 (-32%). Tier 1 was then paused two days later on Sep 10. Two back-to-back disruptions trigger a learning phase reset, forcing more aggressive modelling on remaining campaigns.

Sep 17 crossover — organic baseline drops to real level (~1,800/day): With no more viral momentum, GA's daily claims (2,000–4,600) now exceed what Apple records across all channels. This is when the true attribution gap becomes visible.

Sep 19–25 — Serial tCPA cuts across all tiers: Tier 3 cut from $0.65→$0.30 (−54% over two steps), Tier 4 from $4.23→$2.00 (−53%), US/UK/CA/AU from $6.70→$5.00. Each cut forces the algorithm to find cheaper installs — when real supply is insufficient, conversion modelling fills the gap. The GA/ASC ratio escalates in lockstep: 1.5x (Sep 19) → 2.6x (Sep 24) → 3.0x (Sep 27).

Sep 29–30 — Campaign restructuring: 13 ad groups paused across Tier 2 and Tier 4; multiple budget reductions; creative refresh. Activity at end of month suggests team was correcting poor performance — consistent with overclaiming campaigns that weren't delivering real results.

Date	ASC Installs	Google Ads	GA − ASC	GA / ASC
Oct 1–9 — Campaigns active, new ad group with optimised targeting enabled
Oct 1 Optimised targeting enabled US/UK/CA/AU New ad group created	1,733	2,273	+540	1.3x
Oct 2	1,641	2,131	+490	1.3x
Oct 3 FR & PT campaigns paused ES budget $100→$200	1,525	2,056	+531	1.3x
Oct 4 ES campaign paused Creative refresh all tiers	1,506	3,172	+1,666	2.1x
Oct 5	1,833	2,923	+1,090	1.6x
Oct 6	1,323	3,714	+2,391	2.8x
Oct 7	1,999	4,012	+2,013	2.0x
Oct 8 US/UK/CA/AU tCPA $0.70→$0.56 Tier 1/2 budget $300→$500 US $800→$200 shifted to Tier 1/2	1,874	2,992	+1,118	1.6x
Oct 9	1,702	3,406	+1,704	2.0x
Oct 10–13 — Major geo consolidation across all campaigns
Oct 10 20+ countries removed across Tier 2/3/4 US/UK/CA/AU budget $400→$500 ROW campaign paused	1,688	3,222	+1,534	1.9x
Oct 11	1,481	2,580	+1,099	1.7x
Oct 12	1,448	3,282	+1,834	2.3x
Oct 13	1,283	3,193	+1,910	2.5x
Oct 14–20 — Budget surge, ratio peaks at 4.8×
Oct 14 ↑ US/UK/CA/AU $500→$650 + $250→$350 ↑ Tier 1/2 $500→$650	1,051	4,950	+3,899	4.7x
Oct 15	1,153	4,472	+3,319	3.9x
Oct 16	1,137	5,417	+4,280	4.8x
Oct 17 ↑ US/UK/CA/AU $650→$715 Ad copy updated	1,107	5,101	+3,994	4.6x
Oct 18	1,240	4,347	+3,107	3.5x
Oct 19	1,435	6,100	+4,665	4.3x
Oct 20 ALL campaigns paused (14 total)	1,243	2,222	+979	1.8x
Oct 21–31 — No active spend (all paused)
Oct 21	865	0	−865	—
Oct 22	874	0	−874	—
Oct 23	821	0	−821	—
Oct 24	970	0	−970	—
Oct 25	1,044	0	−1,044	—
Oct 26	1,338	0	−1,338	—
Oct 27	1,396	0	−1,396	—
Oct 28	1,114	0	−1,114	—
Oct 29	1,220	0	−1,220	—
Oct 30	1,109	0	−1,109	—
Oct 31 Training campaign paused Creative refresh (3 ads)	1,163	0	−1,163	—
Total (Oct 1–31)	41,316	71,565	+30,249	1.7x
Active days only (Oct 1–20)	29,402	71,565	+42,163	2.4x

GA > 3× ASC

GA > 1.5× ASC

GA > ASC

Campaigns paused

tCPA

↑ Budget

↓ Budget

Pause

Geo

Creative

Targeting

GA exceeded ASC on all 20 active days. Google claimed more installs than Apple recorded across every channel combined — organic, Meta, TikTok, and Google — on every single day campaigns ran.

Oct 1 — Optimised Targeting enabled on US/UK/CA/AU: A new ad group was created with targeting set to "Observation" mode — this is Google's Optimised Targeting (audience expansion). This broadens the eligible audience pool beyond campaign targeting and increases the algorithm's reliance on conversion modelling to find installs. Present from day 1 of October.

Oct 3–10 — Geo consolidation and campaign pruning: FR, PT, ES, and ROW campaigns progressively paused; 20+ countries removed across Tier 2/3/4 on Oct 10. Spend consolidated into US/UK/CA/AU and Tier 1/2. Budget reallocation forces learning phase resets on campaigns receiving shifted budgets.

Oct 8 — tCPA cut + budget reallocation: US/UK/CA/AU tCPA cut from $0.70→$0.56 (−20%). Budget simultaneously moved from US ($800→$200) to Tier 1/2 ($300→$500). Two simultaneous disruptions on the main revenue campaign trigger aggressive re-optimisation.

Oct 14 — Budget surge (+~30%): US/UK/CA/AU received two budget increases ($500→$650 and $250→$350). Tier 1/2 also increased ($500→$650). GA/ASC immediately jumps to 4.7x and stays at 3.5–4.8x for six consecutive days. The algorithm scaled claimed installs in direct proportion to increased budget. Oct 17 added another increase ($650→$715).

Oct 20 — All 14 campaigns paused simultaneously: GA drops to exactly 0 for Oct 21–31. ASC continues at 865–1,396/day (true organic baseline). This eliminates the attribution-date mismatch theory — if 30-day click windows were generating delayed installs, GA would show non-zero values post-pause.

Date	ASC Installs	Google Ads	GA − ASC	GA / ASC
Nov 1–6 — All campaigns still paused (from Oct 20)
Nov 1	1,091	0	−1,091	—
Nov 2	1,305	0	−1,305	—
Nov 3	1,348	0	−1,348	—
Nov 4	1,126	0	−1,126	—
Nov 5	987	0	−987	—
Nov 6	904	0	−904	—
Nov 7 — Campaigns relaunched (CPT + CPI US, new structure)
Nov 7 Optimised targeting enabled (both campaigns) Full creative rebuild — 30+ new ads Ongoing campaign paused	857	2	−855	0.0x
Nov 8 Campaigns learning	911	115	−796	0.1x
Nov 9–10 — Overclaim appears, 2 days post-relaunch
Nov 9	1,103	1,400	+297	1.3x
Nov 10	788	1,724	+936	2.2x
Nov 11–16 — ASC recovers above GA
Nov 11	657	291	−366	0.4x
Nov 12 tCPA cuts CPI $1.00→$0.85 / CPT $7.50→$6.30	696	57	−639	0.1x
Nov 13	659	27	−632	0.0x
Nov 14	665	13	−652	0.0x
Nov 15	900	98	−802	0.1x
Nov 16	1,076	39	−1,037	0.0x
Nov 17–26 — Second and third overclaim clusters
Nov 17	901	1,527	+626	1.7x
Nov 18	643	575	−68	0.9x
Nov 19 tCPA raised CPT $6.30→$8.00 / CPI $0.85→$1.20 Creative refresh	922	745	−177	0.8x
Nov 20 tCPA cut CPT $8.00→$7.00 / CPI $1.20→$1.00	854	1,222	+368	1.4x
Nov 21 ICM implemented	988	566	−422	0.6x
Nov 22	1,260	984	−276	0.8x
Nov 23	1,435	1,145	−290	0.8x
Nov 24	1,280	1,994	+714	1.6x
Nov 25	1,183	1,706	+523	1.4x
Nov 26	1,379	1,707	+328	1.2x
Nov 27–30 — Budget increased, GA drops to near zero
Nov 27 tCPA cuts CPI $1.00→$0.85 / CPT $7.00→$6.00 Creative refresh	1,147	207	−940	0.2x
Nov 28 ↑ CPI $500→$600 / CPT $600→$700 tCPA cuts CPI $0.85→$0.80 / CPT $6.00→$5.00	1,171	7	−1,164	0.0x
Nov 29	1,162	1	−1,161	0.0x
Nov 30	1,326	3	−1,323	0.0x
Total (Nov 1–30)	30,724	16,155	−14,569	0.53x
Active days only (Nov 7–30)	23,273	16,155	−7,118	0.69x

GA > 2× ASC

GA > 1.5× ASC

GA > ASC

ASC > GA

Campaigns paused

tCPA

↑ Budget

Pause

Creative

Targeting

ICM iOS Conversion Modelling

Nov 1–6 — Paused (carried over from Oct 20): No GA activity. ASC records 900–1,350/day organic. Confirms the true baseline is consistent whether campaigns are paused days or weeks.

Nov 7 — Full campaign rebuild: Two new campaigns launched (CPT US and CPI US) replacing the multi-tier October structure. Both built with Optimised Targeting enabled across all new ad groups — the same configuration that was present in October. 30+ new ads created. The Ongoing campaign (which had been paused) is formally removed from rotation.

Nov 9–10 — Overclaim appears within 48 hours of relaunch: GA claims 1,400 and 1,724 installs on days when ASC records 1,103 and 788. The Nov 10 peak (2.2x) nearly matches the Sep 24–27 range. This is the learning phase in action — Google's algorithm models installs aggressively while it has no historical data to anchor on. The overclaim peaks on day 3 then drops sharply.

Nov 17 and Nov 20 — Smaller overclaim clusters: GA spikes to 1.7x and 1.4x. These coincide with ongoing tCPA adjustments (Nov 12 cuts, Nov 19 raises then Nov 20 reversal). Each tCPA change destabilises the algorithm's optimisation state, triggering a mini learning phase and elevated modelling.

Nov 24–26 — Third cluster (1.2–1.6x): No explicit change logged immediately before — likely the campaigns had re-entered a learning phase after the Nov 20 tCPA adjustments. Three consecutive overclaim days before GA drops to near zero again.

Nov 21 — ICM implemented: iOS Conversion Modelling was enabled on this date. ICM is Google's mechanism for estimating conversions on iOS devices where ATT opt-out prevents direct measurement — it fills gaps using ML-modelled signals rather than device-level data. This sits between the Nov 20 overclaim day and the Nov 24–26 cluster. Worth noting as a potential amplifier of the existing modelling pressure: with ICM active, Google now has an additional pathway to claim installs that Apple will never see in ASC.

Monthly total: GA under ASC (0.53x). November is a partial overclaim month. The month-level figure looks safe (GA < ASC) but hides 7 individual days of overclaiming. Budget is lower than October ($500–700/day vs $1,200–1,600/day), so the scale of overclaiming is proportionally smaller. The mechanism is identical.

Date	ASC Installs	Google Ads	GA − ASC	GA / ASC
Dec 1–4 — Skeleton spend, two campaigns (CPT US + CPI US) running at reduced budget
Dec 1	1,185	6	−1,179	0.0x
Dec 2	943	4	−939	0.0x
Dec 3	916	3	−913	0.0x
Dec 4	887	4	−883	0.0x
Dec 5 — Budget cuts and tCPA raised on both active campaigns
Dec 5 CPT budget $700→$300 CPI budget $600→$300 tCPA raised CPT $5→$7 / CPI $0.80→$1.00	862	5	−857	0.0x
Dec 6	984	5	−979	0.0x
Dec 7	1,267	5	−1,262	0.0x
Dec 8	1,220	29	−1,191	0.0x
Dec 9	1,074	112	−962	0.1x
Dec 10	1,166	156	−1,010	0.1x
Dec 11	903	16	−887	0.0x
Dec 12	940	235	−705	0.2x
Dec 13	1,524	222	−1,302	0.1x
Dec 14	1,953	25	−1,928	0.0x
Dec 15	1,630	243	−1,387	0.1x
Dec 16	1,445	3	−1,442	0.0x
Dec 17	1,135	3	−1,132	0.0x
Dec 18 CPT tCPA $7→$6 Creative refresh	1,039	13	−1,026	0.0x
Dec 19 — CPI campaign paused, CPT only remaining
Dec 19 CPI US campaign paused	785	7	−778	0.0x
Dec 20	932	0	−932	—
Dec 21	1,148	7	−1,141	0.0x
Dec 22	1,131	237	−894	0.2x
Dec 23	1,035	330	−705	0.3x
Dec 24 CPT tCPA $6→$5	1,224	286	−938	0.2x
Dec 25	2,352	118	−2,234	0.1x
Dec 26–31 — CPT budget adjusted, tCPA oscillating
Dec 26 CPT budget $300→$400 New YouTube creative	2,428	9	−2,419	0.0x
Dec 27	2,409	2	−2,407	0.0x
Dec 28	2,505	7	−2,498	0.0x
Dec 29 CPT tCPA $5→$4	2,448	99	−2,349	0.0x
Dec 30	2,732	3	−2,729	0.0x
Dec 31 CPT budget $400→$300 CPT tCPA raised $4→$5	2,591	17	−2,574	0.0x
Total (Dec 1–31)	44,793	2,211	−42,582	0.05x

ASC > GA (all 31 days)

tCPA

↑ Budget

↓ Budget

Pause

Creative

GA never exceeded ASC on any single day in December. Zero overclaim across the full month.

Dec 5 — Budget halved on both active campaigns: CPT US cut from $700→$300 (−57%) and CPI US from $600→$300 (−50%). tCPA simultaneously raised (CPT: $5→$7, CPI: $0.80→$1.00). This is the opposite of October — reduced budget and less aggressive tCPA targets. GA barely registers through the rest of the month (2–330/day).

Dec 9–13 — Small GA pulses (100–240/day): The only days with any meaningful GA figures. Likely residual spend from the CPT campaign before it was fully reduced. Nowhere near ASC on any day.

Dec 25–31 — Holiday organic surge: ASC climbs to 2,400–2,700/day from natural App Store traffic over Christmas. GA claimed none of this — confirms December is a clean baseline month and the overclaim mechanism requires active, scaled spend to operate.

Contrast with October: December had the same tCPA-cutting pattern (CPT: $7→$4 over the month) but at a budget floor of $300–$400/day vs October's $1,200–$1,600/day. The combination of high budget + aggressive tCPA + optimised targeting is what creates the conditions for mass overclaiming. Individually, none of these changes produce the effect.

Daily Installs — Google Ads vs Apple Store Connect

Cross-Month Summary — Monthly Totals